With subpoena power and the threat of jail time (how many hundreds of years did Madoff get?), stepped up enforcement can moderate the rampant speculation and greed to function efficiently as a lubricant to the markets like oil in a car and not sparks in a dry forest.
Well… judges? The envelope please… (Imagine whispers and hushed speaking voices.) It’s of course Gretchen Morgenson herself; brilliant, insightful New York Times Columnist and all around contributor to humanity. She is always honest, informed and on-target (she would have won last year but she was too busy scaling K2 in Nepal). Ms. Morgenson, who likes to be called Ms. Morgenson, said she was “thrilled” to even be considered and would put this award right up there with her Pulitzer Prize (not).
Why all this *ahem* praise for Ms. Morgenson? This Sunday she reported on the next impending financial crash, this time involving overinflated bank stocks. Gosh. Didn’t we just get off that ledge, abyss? Or was it a precipice?
(Fill in your word – this blog is interactive).
Ms. Morgenson’s piece succinctly reports that despite unpromising data coming from the banks, the numbers are just not there: bank stocks are soaring – soaring on air and not cash and profits. The analysis Ms. Morgenson highlights in her column of smaller, non-money-center banks (which excludes Citigroup, Bank of America, etcetera) illustrates that “the number of financially sound banks is declining.” Coupling these two facts together, Ms. Morgenson concludes that it is time to “determine whether fundamentals in the industry support this rocket-fueled surge in bank shares.”
Thanks Gretchen, good column as always – but I sense an undertone of panic and fear; a siren signaling a second crisis in the financial sector. With all due respect to Ms. Morgenson, it’s not time to panic just yet. To be sure, it is difficult not to doubt everything financial, from soaring bank stocks to the dollar bill with which I buy my Snickers (yes a Snickers). But we’re seeing plenty of signs of stability and the markets (all of them) seem to be better patrolled by the Feds. Greed and profit taking will always be there it just needs to be maintained at a moderate level – and not get silly. To ensure that doesn’t happen, we have the regulators and enforcers. With subpoena power and the threat of jail time (how many hundreds of years did Madoff get?), stepped up enforcement can moderate the rampant speculation and greed to function efficiently as a lubricant to the markets like oil in a car and not sparks in a dry forest. So let those bank stocks soar for awhile on greed and speculation. They will come back down to earth. In the meantime, a little speculation is good for the sector.
(Post was prepared with the assistance of David Martin, University of North Carolina 2010)